Hello everyone. Thanks so much for taking the opportunity to go through the pandemic flu scenario with us here in Southeast Idaho. The next post is scheduled for Monday, July 21, 2008, and it will have the next mock news scenario update. We’ll also post sickness, absenteeism, and fatality rates each day next week because…surprise…the flu ends up here in southeast Idaho in the scenario. If you haven’t seen any of our planning numbers, next week is when you can see them.
If your’re reading this for the first time this weekend, please take the time to go through each post and read the comments. There are many details that get addressed in the comments. Deborah F. has progressed from someone who didn’t know about pandemic flu to someone who has TAKEN ACTION to be more prepared…congratulations to her! During your weekend, take some time to get preparedness lists and TAKE ACTION to prepare.
Have a great weekend!
Darin
July 19, 2008 at 5:32 am |
Darin,
Thanks – have a good weekend. I look forward to next week.
Deborah F. like many average and above average citzens has taken action. It is not hard. We buy CF light bulbs and “green” products to fight global warming. We make sure our cars are ready for the winter. It is Common Sense – just like having a spare tire in your car.
For the not so average citzen it can be more important. Still Common Sense but more important. Buying in bulk is cost effective now. Now before things happen the lessons learned from preppers shows buying in bulk, having mutual support for day care and multiple friends with tools is good. During a pandemic it will be even more critical.
These pages are written for you. Because of what you can do for yourself and family these pages are written for you. Please read them and start doing what you can.
If you have a moment add a comment of what you think your pandemic experiance will be.
I’ll go first. The kids and family will be at home to shelter in place. We have school books and things for them to do. I will be out working – hopefuly at my job. If not there then there will be lots of places for me to vollunteer or work. We plan to be ok and if need be camp for three months.
If all that sounds easy then do the same. There are lots of places to aks questions and get answers. BTW, preparation has already paid off. The neighbors kids have liked learning how to make a fire, roast marshmallows, and make games at home. Our food bill is down too.
All this sounds too good to be true. Well no one makes plans to suffer, people make plans to have a good time.
Please comment on your plans and concerns. You are not alone here.
Regards,
Kobie
“Just do it” – Nike sports company.
July 21, 2008 at 10:42 am |
There are some nice touches in this morning’s scenario.
1. “Approximately 30% of the people will get sick and another 30% of people will stay home to take care of the sick.” Exactly, and good to see it in an exercise. A healthy parent/spouse is not going to go off to work, saying “hope you feel better” if a child/spouse has a life-threatening illness (as this is). And it cuts across the board – healthcare works, public safety workers, teachers, farmers, etc. Employers in all sectors should have significant absenteeism as a planning assumption in their panflu plans. Your inclusion of this helps us understand the importance of being three deep in critical functions.
2. The 10% of the population who appear to have elected to ‘shelter in place’ is interesting. I am guessing that it recognizes both intuitive understanding that to avoid contact minimizes infection, and also that they have prepared (in varying degrees) in advance, which is excellent.
July 21, 2008 at 10:48 am |
(pre-travel restriction time)… I’m thinking I would anticipate a population influx to the area. Example reasons:
1. college students returning home
2. immediate and extended family members returning (in some cases, a pre-arranged contingency)
Not sure how this impacts your health distrcit and healthcare system.
July 21, 2008 at 12:18 pm |
I am writing to correct one piece of information provided in the faux newscast that mentions Relenza is not available in the US. As you can see from the US Food & Drug Administration web site that Relenza is approved for sale and is available in the US ( http://www.fda.gov/cder/drug/InfoSheets/patient/zanamivirPIS.htm).
July 21, 2008 at 12:38 pm |
Art Bernardino,
Good Catch – thanks and thanks for quoting the source.
Any other thoughts? Did the news cast seem real? Did it cover enough?
I thought it was good. They could have had a sports section complaining about the sweet 16, super bowl, etc that will be cancelled in a few weeks due to H5N1.
“Entertainment Tonight” should have a special on Paris Hilton’s reaction, how Britney Spears not is handling this, Kid Rock will do a concert, etc, etc. My response is not as flippint and cruel as it seems. Song would be a good way to express and vent fear and frustration. They also help bind people together. Sadly, college kids may know more about Pat Benatar or Hanna Montanna is doing than the president, congress or the CDC.
Kobie
“Sad songs say so much” Sir Elton John.
July 21, 2008 at 1:33 pm |
RE: Population influx to area (from Mel):
- In many of the presentations we do in southeast Idaho, we mention the urban flight to safety. This is the concept that people in big cities will go to rural areas to what they believe is a “safe” area. Montpelier, Preston, and Malad are especially susceptible to an influx of people from Salt Lake. I know the folks in Kemmerer, WY are also planning for the people from Salt Lake.
July 21, 2008 at 1:34 pm |
Art: thanks for the update on the news release. I hadn’t caught that in the video.
July 21, 2008 at 1:55 pm |
Kobie: “Pat Benatar” is dating yourself a bit (as my mentioning it dates me, too!). Your concept of how television and popular culture will react is quite interesting.
July 21, 2008 at 7:33 pm |
Darin,
Hi. Yes Pat Benatar does date me but there are a number of 16 and 18 year olds listening to her. Just like “The Who” and “The Stones”
I hope pop culter will be helpful. During the Civil War, WW1 and WWII there where many “Victory Songs” that helped people deal with things. The Viet Nam war brought about many more. 9/11 brought about a great deal professionaly and from average citizens trying to make sense of what was gong on.
With a strained mental health system, people will need all the comfort they can.
BTW Google labs has a tool called Trend finder that shows what people are interested in.
If you compare the searches for h5n1, pandemic, britney spears, bathing suit and chocolate then you see Britney, chocolate and bathing suits win out way over H5N1.
Source: http://www.google.com/trends?q=h5n1%2C+pandemic%2C+britney+spears%2C+bathing+suit%2C+chocolate
Now take out Britney and chocolate to seee just h5n1, pandemic, Avian flu, chocolate and it is even more disturbing. There are more news stories on H5N1 but people want chcolate.
Source: http://www.google.com/trends?q=h5n1%2C+pandemic%2C+Avian+flu%2C+chocolate&ctab=0&geo=all&date=all&sort=0
Its even worse if you substitute diet for chocolate.
As the pandemic grows closer and the word gets out to be prepared I hope, I hope, these numbers will change. I think it also shows the influence stars can have to make a difference, to deliver a message. If they see the facts, they belive and they do not run and hide.
Here Dolly Parton comes to mind. To get kids to read she did not throw her money at the problem – she created a solution that others could understand and duplicate. It works. People take ownership of the solution, spend their own money and reap the rewards. NASCAR racers have done the same in creating camps for terminaly ill and very sick kids.
As for the singers and pop stars, if they do not know what to do then read and understand, Let our words break upon you like the waves upon the sand. Let them guide you through the dark, for between the mind and the hand lies the heart. When things get bad it may be time to “Strike up the Band” or “Roll Out the Barrel”
Afterwards all my be quiet. 1918 was so horrible no one talks of it. It does not show up in many history books. 1920, the roaring 20’s may have been a reaction to 1918 and 1919. But I am getting ahead of myself.
Have a good evening to all and all a good night.
Regards,
Kobie
Pat Benatar supports Compute against cancer. Like SETI, it uses spare CPU cycles to help find a cure for cancer.
“What is in a name?”
December 6, 2008 at 3:00 pm |
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