This is an exercise. It is not real.
Pandemic Flu continues to spread in southeast Idaho. Several counties in southeast Idaho have declared a state of emergency and begun establishing, supplying, and finding staff for the alternate care sites (Note: on July 30 and 31, most counties in the district will setup their alternate care sites as part of this exercise). Absenteeism is affecting staffing in most stores, and many service related businesses have decided to close because citizens are not out and about shopping and spending money; instead, they are staying home and following the voluntary isolation measures.
There are currently no travel restrictions in place.
Today’s sickness numbers are posted below. Notice that the fatalities are beginning. I had to take out the population column so the fatalities column would show up (web page design issue). Please refer to the July 23 scenario update for county populations.
| July 24 |
Absenteeism Rate |
Attack Rate |
Number of people who have presented to the hospital with flu-like symptoms |
Fatalities past 24 hours |
| Bannock |
40.00% |
26.50% |
734 |
9 |
| Bear Lake |
40.00% |
26.50% |
62 |
1 |
| Bingham |
40.00% |
26.50% |
406 |
5 |
| Butte |
40.00% |
26.50% |
28 |
0 |
| Caribou |
40.00% |
26.50% |
71 |
1 |
| Franklin |
40.00% |
26.50% |
110 |
1 |
| Ft Hall |
40.00% |
26.50% |
34 |
0 |
| Oneida |
40.00% |
26.50% |
40 |
1 |
| Power |
40.00% |
26.50% |
73 |
1 |
|
July 24 |
Fatalities past 24 hours |
|
Bannock |
9 |
|
Bear Lake |
1 |
|
Bingham |
5 |
|
Butte |
0 |
|
Caribou |
1 |
|
Franklin |
1 |
|
Ft Hall |
0 |
|
Oneida |
1 |
|
Power |
1 |
Businesses should consider: Reviewing article about Continuity of Operations and workforce management at http://www.workforce.com/section/02/feature/24/23/31/. This is an older article but still worth reading. You can also learn the basics about Business Continuity Planning by watching the below video (I don’t this company or have any relation with them. I searched youtube for good videos, and thought this fit our exercise the best).
Private Citizens should consider: Watching the Red Cross’ series of personal preparedness videos. Here is a series of Red Cross Pandemic Flu videos:
Clip 2
Clip 3
This is an exercise. It is not real.
July 24, 2008 at 10:27 am |
I am following your state exercise with great interest on a daily basis. I have a few free documents on my website that may or may not help in preparations for an avian influenza pandemic. Good job!
July 24, 2008 at 10:33 am |
From the exercise coordinator
Larry: feel free to post links in the comments page. Thanks for reading!
July 24, 2008 at 11:51 am |
I realize how important it is to be prepared and have enough supplies and water for your family for at least 2 weeks in the event of a flu pandemic but in the videos it doesn’t say anything about also preparing for your pets. It is important to remember that if you have pets in your home you will need to increase your water supply to include and accomodate them. You will also need to make sure that you have enough food and pet supplies in your kit for the same period of time you have planned for for your family. Let’s not forget about our pets. They are part of the family too!!
July 24, 2008 at 12:14 pm |
Penny Nelson,
Good point about pets. Pets are not allowed at shelters. If Single pet owners get sick then who takes care of the pet?
BTW – there was a story about more pets showing up at shelters now because of rising food prices and forclosures. (one source: http://www.telegram.com/article/20080724/NEWS/807240424/1003/NEWS03
and
http://www.9news.com/seenon9news/article.aspx?storyid=96338&catid=509)
With so many that could die in a pandemic the number goes up even higher.
Penny, vets may be called on to aid health care workers during a pandemic. So getting pet care, special Science Diet pet food, or meds may be an issue. Yes mamals do catch H5N1 but there is little to go on. One story from Viet Nam about the cat like civet caught our eye (http://english.vietnamnet.vn/reports/2008/03/777447/) from another blog calld FluTrackers ther is this CDC report about H5N1 in dogs http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/EID/vol12no11/06-0542.htm.
So far these reports are rare – which is good.
It becomes a public health issue with ferrel cats, dogs, snakes, iguanas, ferrets, etc. I’m not sure if people will release their birds. Remeber services could be strained to begin with so having animal control round up would be hard.
Note: small animals change the feeding habbits of wild animals like snakes, hawks, falcons, eagles, wolfs and bear. So there is a potential ripple effect.
As an NPR article said last year – more people are keeping chickens in manhatten and other cities for the eggs. So far they do not have to be registered.
Larry as SHDHTraining said – Hi, welcome, do post your links and plese comment some more.
Regards,
Kobie
“You never change things by fighting the existing reality. To change something, build a new model that makes the existing model obsolete.” — Buckminster Fuller
July 24, 2008 at 12:27 pm |
Technical note, work around for website readability: The table appears, in my browser, truncated on the right side. This shows hospital presentations as 73 for Bannock Co.
Work around: Highlight the table completely (include a sentence above and below), copy and paste into Word. The entire table will appear and be readable. Doing this shows the hospital presentations as 734, a number that dramatically overworks available medical personnel.
July 24, 2008 at 12:30 pm |
Your veterinarian is likely to be overworked and understaffed, and his facilities and trained personnel may end up being co-opted to care for humans. If you see the pandemic coming, stock up on any prescriptions your pet may be on.
Same goes for your own prescriptions, and especially those of your elderly parents. Even if they aren’t in the same community, you could call them when the stormclouds are on the horizon and suggest they get a couple of extra months’ worth of Rx refills.
July 24, 2008 at 1:25 pm |
SDHDTraining,
Hi. The stores closing down because some are not shopping is understandable.
Any comments on some stores being overrun as people stock up on OTC flu meds, vitiamins and supplies?
Is Tamiflu being given out without a doctors visit?
Any comments on transportation disrruption?
Any comments on business closing down because it is cheaper to close for the duration than stay open.
What about un-employment lines as people file for un-employment??
How are the hospitals working?
Regards
Kobie
“The art of medicine consists in amusing the patient while nature cures the disease. ” Voltaire (1694 – 1778)
July 24, 2008 at 2:20 pm |
Penny,
You will also find the basics of Pets in a flu pandemic in http://www.getpandemicready.org . In the center section, you will find “Pets” under the topic heading “Special Concerns.” This also discusses a basic first aid kit for pets – important for the reasons mentioned in previous posts.
July 24, 2008 at 3:55 pm |
Replies to questions:
- Any comments on some stores being overrun as people stock up on OTC flu meds, vitiamins and supplies? I think the stores were probably emptied out after the second mock news clip. It’s hard to get a good feel for the timeline. At this point, with the attack rate the way it is, I’m sure the OTC meds are long gone with very little resupply (which gets divvied out to friends who know the store clerks probably). Resupply is an issue due to transportation problems.
Is Tamiflu being given out without a doctors visit? : Could be happening at prepared businesses. This link is a featured post tomorrow: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080626/ap_on_he_me/stockpiling_tamiflu
Any comments on transportation disrruption? No regulatory disruptions. Recommended isolation is in effect, meaning don’t travel unless you have to. We talked to ISU today, and recommended international students who are at home during the summer break don’t come back to U.S. right now, but there is no “law” or “order” in effect to say they can’t come back. Any disruptions is due to sickness such as lack of drivers, lack of gasoline supply at all nodes in the supply chain, and lack of maintenance staff and/parts. Again, hard to nail down the disruption in any tangible terms at this point other than to say some things may not be available.
Any comments on business closing down because it is cheaper to close for the duration than stay open: That’s part of COOP planning. If I was a small business owner, I might be researching disaster insurance of some sort that would allow me to do that. I haven’t researched it, but the insurance industry is very innovative sometimes. I certainly think it’s an option for people to shut down there business if they think the long-term affect is positive. Why have people staffing check-out stations when nobody is shopping?
What about un-employment lines as people file for un-employment??
How are the hospitals working? They’re overflowing and working with counties for alternate care sites. All government agencies are working as hard as ever to find medical professionals to assist. Southeast Idaho has significant staffing issues in our rural communities (ie almost everywhere!).
July 24, 2008 at 4:51 pm |
Economic impact of a severe pandemic and small business COOP planning
[hopefully not drifting too far]
Writing severe pandemic COOP plans for small businesses is challenging because of the sheer amount of unknowns – perhaps a bit like a pandemic annex to an Emergency Operations Plan -:). The planning effort is certainly worth the time, however.
One outcome we can deduce with a high degree of certainty is that there will be an immediate, deleterious impact on local economies. It does not matter whether this is caused by absenteeism of sick/dead workforce, implementation of flu plans of businesses, quarantine/isolation measures of a public health response plan, disruption of the transportation systems for supplies/deliveries, or from voluntary social distancing. The outcome is immediate to individuals, families and local economies.
The economic situation is exacerbated by the “just-in-time” business model adopted universally over the last decades. Most supplies (whether raw materials for manufacture, or finished goods for resale), are not kept on-site, but rather ordered “just-in-time” from regional warehouses. Consequently, grocery stores, for example, have approximately three days of food on the shelves, with the former warehouse, now on wheels. This is an economic-driven situation, as most business owners cannot afford square footage that is not producing a profit, much less the cost and interest expense of a large inventory.
Some businesses (especially manufacturing) may want to consider a partial return to older (pre-‘just in time’) ways, and stock some extra inventory. The costs and potential benefits would need to be weighed, of course. One could consider this another form of insurance. Kind of like what prudent families are doing with food supply.
[Even further drifting] For consideration by taxing entities…what is the practicality of offering a tax incentive for businesses to do this…say a tax break on inventory of up to three months production?
July 24, 2008 at 5:02 pm |
I like to think of home emergency plans as personal/family COOP plans. That context opens some new ways of thinking.
July 25, 2008 at 6:17 am |
I have gathered several dozen PDF documents together into one table and are freely downloadable to anyone who is interested in individual & family preparedness. These documents can be found at the following website:
http://www.drum-runners.com
July 25, 2008 at 9:02 am |
Prior posts said:
“How are the hospitals working? They’re overflowing and working with counties for alternate care sites. All government agencies are working as hard as ever to find medical professionals to assist.”
I am a small animal veterinarian with staff trained to place IV catheters and monitor IV fluids, a digital x-ray system, autoclave, in-house lab chemistry anaylzer with electrolytes and lactate capability, we have oxygen piped throughout the hospital. Am I still treating animal patients, or has my facility and staff been co-opted as an alternate care site.
40% of my staff aren’t coming to work since they or their children/spouses are sick.
July 25, 2008 at 9:09 am |
Just curious so I’m asking a couple of questions. With all the household pets, perhaps abandoned by the sick or dead, has anyone considered the ‘packing’ of these animals? If left to their own devices, would not dogs tend to form packs and hunt ? Would this not present a problem for every community since animal control might not even exist during a pandemic? And after the pandemic has burnt out, the feral animals would continue to breed and present long term problems?
July 25, 2008 at 10:03 am |
http://media.www.thedmonline.com/media/storage/paper876/news/2008/04/24/News/Officer.Opens.Fire.On.Wild.Dog.Pack-3346649.shtml
http://www.abcnews.go.com/Travel/BusinessTravel/story?id=4305319&page=1
http://www.gallupindependent.com/2008/06June/060308dogs.html
http://www.newsminer.com/news/2008/jul/11/borough-animal-control-tracks-pack-wild-dogs-near-/
http://www.ki4u.com/webpal/a_reconstruction/immediate/death/dogs.htm
July 25, 2008 at 12:19 pm |
Larry,
Hi. Thanks for the web site. One thing that has not come up is that milk jugs should *not* be used for drinking water. Soda bottles, water bottles yes but not the milk ones we all get.
There is also a water bob. It is a plastic bag about the size of your bath tub that you fill in your bath tub and then use for drinking water. I like the Drum idea better.
Note: once filled a drum basicaly can not be moved by people.
Yes pack dogs and ferrel cats, snakes, ferrets and other pets things could get interesting. Second putting out the animals changes the food supply for flacons, wolves, bears, etc. Lastly there is rabies.
SDHDTrainer has said in so many words “Law enforcement is overwhelemed and may be non exsistant” Please correct me if I am wrong.
Walter – I hope you and your staff are treating two legged animal (homosapian) instead of the four legged ones. Dr. Vet does not sound re-assuring but is better than Dr. Novice. Vets do get alot, alot of training.
My question would be legal protection for you. Post Katrina people tried suing the nurses who stayed behind to care for the sick.
Mel, Tax break on inventory. Good idea. I have not heard anyone mention it. The big problem has been storage space. Grocery stores now use their current shelf space as their storage with very little kept in the back. It sounds like a do able idea that may be meet with limited resistance.
Mel one thing to consider – production time. Toilet paper, masks and diapers are quick and easy to make. Wine and beer takes longer. We have stocked up accordingly. Wine takes up less space than toilet paper.
Regards,
Kobie
July 25, 2008 at 12:54 pm |
A second concurrence with Kobie’s comment that you should NOT use milk jugs for water. Reason #1: Once opened, milk is very natural medium for micro-organism growth, and these can get imbedded in the plastic. Reason #2: Milk jugs are very, very thin-walled. They can disintegrate in as little as six months. Again, as Kobie mentioned, soda bottle and water bottles would work great.
Kobie…lol at the TP comment. We have two heavy industries here. One makes TP (various brand labelings) among other thngs, and the other makes ammunition, among other things. I admit a bias in favor of manufacturing industries, be they large or small. We also have a few wineries – lol.
July 26, 2008 at 7:14 pm |
Mel,
Thanks for the info on milk jug walls being thin. You are right. When the public is told abut the pandemic they may do some pretty stupid things that seem ok – like store water in milk jugs, use candles and oil lamps indorrs for the first time or worse. People may assume the pandemic is too big for them and then do nothing.
Wow – TP and ammunition. With some food and med supplies you guys could be set.
Manufacuturing. There was a discussion about GM, Ford and other industires shutting down for the pandemic. I disagreed.
Most geeks have kids, as do most line workers. I would be most proud to see them re-tool their plants to make ventilators within days or even weeks. This does not solve a more basic problem of needing trained respirtory(sp?) technitions. That I am not sure how to solve other than training before hand. Some problems still need a solution.
Mel, how do you tink manufaturing will go?
If manufacturing closes does that mean they do not have to supply Tamiflu to any of their workers nor any of the workers famalies?
Regards and have a good weekend.
Kobie
“Always be wary of any helpful item that weighs less than its operating manual. ” Terry Prachett
July 28, 2008 at 10:10 am |
Kobie: “How do you think manufacturing will go?”
I don’t think we can answer that except in generalizations. I believe external complex systems will heavily influence this specific sector. For example:
1. The severity of the pandemic. If mild, production output can be expected to decrease, and then increase gradually between waves. If severe, some businesses will close during the first wave. Many of these closures will be permanent, as re-start would be difficult and product demand categories would likely be significantly altered.
2. The status of energy resources at/after pandemic onset – the evolving peak oil issue.
3. The status of the various economies/currencies/financial markets at/after pandemic onset.
Generalizations for manufacturing after a severe pandemic. I suspect successful manufacturing to have one or more of the following features:
1. lowered energy use (perhaps using more human labor replacing machines – agriculture, for example).
2. obtain most resources (inputs) from within a region.
3. customer base primarily within a region
I see re-tooling of our plants as problematic (unlike the past). The outsourcing of manufacturing over the last 20 years also included some of our machine tool industry. So we lack much of the ‘tools to make new tools.’
July 29, 2008 at 3:47 pm |
Mel,
Hmmm. Good point. Outsourcing is a problem – or a solution.
H5N1 is not an American problem. The country that can produce a cheap fool proof vent that can be used by the peoples of the world will cash in big time.
Mongolia. The Chinese have started outsourcing hand labor to Mongolia as they work even cheaper. Chinese standard of liveing and they are starting to ask for more than $1.25 (or some amount) per day in some areas.
Some Canadian high schoolers have already started tackling the problem.
Regards,
Kobie
“It does not require a majority to prevail, but rather an irate, tireless minority keen to set brush fires in people’s minds. ” Samuel Adams