Hmmm. Good point. Outsourcing is a problem – or a solution.

H5N1 is not an American problem. The country that can produce a cheap fool proof vent that can be used by the peoples of the world will cash in big time.

Mongolia. The Chinese have started outsourcing hand labor to Mongolia as they work even cheaper. Chinese standard of liveing and they are starting to ask for more than $1.25 (or some amount) per day in some areas.

Some Canadian high schoolers have already started tackling the problem.

Regards,
Kobie
“It does not require a majority to prevail, but rather an irate, tireless minority keen to set brush fires in people’s minds. ” Samuel Adams

I don’t think we can answer that except in generalizations. I believe external complex systems will heavily influence this specific sector. For example:

1. The severity of the pandemic. If mild, production output can be expected to decrease, and then increase gradually between waves. If severe, some businesses will close during the first wave. Many of these closures will be permanent, as re-start would be difficult and product demand categories would likely be significantly altered.

2. The status of energy resources at/after pandemic onset – the evolving peak oil issue.

3. The status of the various economies/currencies/financial markets at/after pandemic onset.

Generalizations for manufacturing after a severe pandemic. I suspect successful manufacturing to have one or more of the following features:

1. lowered energy use (perhaps using more human labor replacing machines – agriculture, for example).

2. obtain most resources (inputs) from within a region.

3. customer base primarily within a region

I see re-tooling of our plants as problematic (unlike the past). The outsourcing of manufacturing over the last 20 years also included some of our machine tool industry. So we lack much of the ‘tools to make new tools.’

Thanks for the info on milk jug walls being thin. You are right. When the public is told abut the pandemic they may do some pretty stupid things that seem ok – like store water in milk jugs, use candles and oil lamps indorrs for the first time or worse. People may assume the pandemic is too big for them and then do nothing.

Wow – TP and ammunition. With some food and med supplies you guys could be set.

Manufacuturing. There was a discussion about GM, Ford and other industires shutting down for the pandemic. I disagreed.

Most geeks have kids, as do most line workers. I would be most proud to see them re-tool their plants to make ventilators within days or even weeks. This does not solve a more basic problem of needing trained respirtory(sp?) technitions. That I am not sure how to solve other than training before hand. Some problems still need a solution.

Mel, how do you tink manufaturing will go?

If manufacturing closes does that mean they do not have to supply Tamiflu to any of their workers nor any of the workers famalies?

Regards and have a good weekend.
Kobie
“Always be wary of any helpful item that weighs less than its operating manual. ” Terry Prachett

Kobie…lol at the TP comment. We have two heavy industries here. One makes TP (various brand labelings) among other thngs, and the other makes ammunition, among other things. I admit a bias in favor of manufacturing industries, be they large or small. We also have a few wineries – lol.

Hi. Thanks for the web site. One thing that has not come up is that milk jugs should *not* be used for drinking water. Soda bottles, water bottles yes but not the milk ones we all get.

There is also a water bob. It is a plastic bag about the size of your bath tub that you fill in your bath tub and then use for drinking water. I like the Drum idea better.

Note: once filled a drum basicaly can not be moved by people.

Yes pack dogs and ferrel cats, snakes, ferrets and other pets things could get interesting. Second putting out the animals changes the food supply for flacons, wolves, bears, etc. Lastly there is rabies.

SDHDTrainer has said in so many words “Law enforcement is overwhelemed and may be non exsistant” Please correct me if I am wrong.

Walter – I hope you and your staff are treating two legged animal (homosapian) instead of the four legged ones. Dr. Vet does not sound re-assuring but is better than Dr. Novice. Vets do get alot, alot of training.

My question would be legal protection for you. Post Katrina people tried suing the nurses who stayed behind to care for the sick.

Mel, Tax break on inventory. Good idea. I have not heard anyone mention it. The big problem has been storage space. Grocery stores now use their current shelf space as their storage with very little kept in the back. It sounds like a do able idea that may be meet with limited resistance.

Mel one thing to consider – production time. Toilet paper, masks and diapers are quick and easy to make. Wine and beer takes longer. We have stocked up accordingly. Wine takes up less space than toilet paper.

Regards,
Kobie