This is an exercise. It is not real.
Good morning. Today is the last day of the blogex. Yesterday’s mock news cast created the situation that pandemic has peaked here in Southeast Idaho. Tomorrow begins the Emergency Operations Center and Alternate Care Site portions of the exercise.
Now ask yourself: What am I doing? What am I eating? What am I drinking? Where are my family and friends? What about my workplace? Consider two, four, six weeks down the road with continued sickness, absenteeism at work, supply chain problems, and deaths. The way to prepare for it is to visualize your daily life amongst all the problems. Some of the simplest things like having enough drinking water could become very difficult.
We’ll have a short wrap-up post in a day or two.
Here are today’s sickness numbers. Sickness is down a bit but deaths are up:
| July 29 | Population | Absenteeism Rate | Attack Rate | Number of people who have presented to the hospital with flu-like symptoms | Fatalities past 24 hours |
| Bannock | 75,565 | 35.00% | 33.00% | 914 | 24 |
| Bear Lake | 6,411 | 35.00% | 33.00% | 78 | 2 |
| Bingham | 41,735 | 35.00% | 33.00% | 505 | 13 |
| Butte | 2,899 | 35.00% | 33.00% | 35 | 1 |
| Caribou | 7,304 | 35.00% | 33.00% | 88 | 2 |
| Franklin | 11,329 | 35.00% | 33.00% | 137 | 4 |
| Ft Hall | 3500 | 35.00% | 33.00% | 42 | 1 |
| Oneida | 4,125 | 35.00% | 33.00% | 50 | 1 |
| Power | 7,538 | 35.00% | 33.00% | 91 | 2 |
Viewers are encouraged to leave comments about how this situation impacts their life.
This is an exercise. It is not real.
July 29, 2008 at 9:04 am |
SDHDTraining,
What am I doing? I do not know. At this point I hope to be working from home. May be bombarded by calls. Kids are out of school so they are playing in the court with a restricted number of people.
No one is ordering pizza or take out anymore as we are afraid of one sick person or driver making us sick.
Personal protection is an issues as some think fire arms are ok, while others do not.
What am I eating – if there is food we are going store bought only. No resteraunts. No bag lunch at work. Outside vegtables are being used. Trying not to look like we have food.
Milk, OJ and bread are gone from the stores. The wine stock is holding out well. Glad I have a dutch oven. Powdered milk is better than condensed.
Over the next few weeks:
We laid in several gallons of plain no-perfule and no-additive bleach so water from the well is no problem. Other people’s pool water is going stagnant and bad.
The few news reports have stopped sensationalizing H5N1. The emotional drain on news, comedians, singers is hard.
The lack of football and baseball is hurting alot of folks. Hollywood is a ghost town after the stars left. LasVegas is in emergency mode only caring for over a million folks. The city only has 500K but the metro area has 1.7 mil. Most left.
We are leaving lights off to look like we do not have any power either.
Wearing a black band around my left arm to signify I too have lost friends and family.
We are washing underwear by hand mostly to stay clean but look like we have not done wash in a week like everyone else.
Kids are inside permanatly now.
We have stopped trying to order flowers and send gift cards.
Fire department did not lay in supplies so we sneak food over to the local firehouse.
EOC finaly got a few CBs as there are more people with a CB than a HAM lic. EOC folks are overwhelmed but never called. They say I should sit down and leave the pandemic to the professionals.
Military was helping out alot but had to rotate people. Turns out it is now safer to be in Germany and parts elsewhere as their first wave has passed.
Wine going faster than expected – shared too much of it, may hat to start brewing beer.
Finaly,
The neighborhood is quiet. All the fuel is for the hospital so there is no gas for generators. It is a 18th century life with 21st century decorations. The car just sits. Reports are varied. The east coast has alot of nuclear power plants that did ok. The midwest took it hard as the lack of diesel slowed coal shipments. Regular storms took out power lines that have not been fixed.
Getting my post pandemic dating website up. May not fully use the post-pandemic recovery stuff till after the next wave but why wait. Power will be on in a few months and there are alot of damaged families to put back together.
Regards,
Kobie
“Chance favors the prepared mind” – Louis Pasteur
July 29, 2008 at 9:10 am |
Kobie: Wow….That’s the most detailed vision of life in a pandemic that I’ve heard in a while. That’s the kind of stuff that brings reality to a situation. Thank you.
July 29, 2008 at 9:35 am |
SDHDTraining,
Hi. Thank you very much and you are most welcome.
It is not all my work as many have written different stories either to explore the possibilities or release their fears and sorrows.
The stories vary from heroic to Mad Max was an optomist. How newspapers will shut down because there is no paper. How LPFM, the special FCC low power FM will be the best medium. How people will deal with renters. Lots of issues.
Trying the test plan helped. It was not easy to make bread as I remebered. Darn powered milk had a MFG code and not an expiration date. Condensed milk is better as a creamer than milk substitute – can have a brown tinge to it. MREs are nifty but get boaring fast. Wine in the 3 and 5 ltr. box stores best.
The facts do not tell the story. The story is in how people coped and how they responed. What descision where made.
I hope others add their stories as they are important. There is so much to write.
Regards,
Kobie
“Its a pandemic, not the end of the world – that comes later” – Kobie
July 29, 2008 at 11:36 am |
Kobie: Fantastic. The “ultimate reality show”. As for me, I think I am still at work at the University, my wife is with me, I hope my two Dachsunds are too. The horses will do OK fending for themselves-I turned them loose. Everyone in my area knows my horses so they will be looked after.
I worry about my town. I don’t think the employees for the Rural Health Clinc have probably come to work thus no medical care. Makes me wonder if I shouldn’t go home and see what I can do there, especially, if other providers here at the University have come in.
Hopefully, I came up with the $1200 for the hand pump for my deep well or I have taken out a loan for $5000 to get a generator. Like I said before, if I am home, my trucks have become fuel storage, my bike or horses are my transportation.
Food is in good supply. Have plenty of camping equipment, including dutch ovens. Just hope I remembered to get in enough propane to fuel the stoves-makes me wonder if I shouldn’t get a few more 5 Gal tanks.
Only have about 15 homes that I can see from my house(Iam on a hill) and we are all fairly separated thus some geographic isolation by acreage and if everyone Stays Home, we are probably conducting good voluntary isolation purely based on our community. Of course, we are five miles out of town. I would probably go into town to see how I could help. I gave the Mayor a copy of the CDC “Take the Lead” Community leaders Toolkit(actually did that today) also have been running articles in the local newsletter put out by the Senior Center. Thus, I am hoping that some are practicing everything that they were prepared for. We have a number of back hoe operators in town and a cemetery thus we can bury the dead. The grocery store gets its supplies from Associated Foods in SLC-so the shelves are still empty and not likely to be refilled any time soon. Live in a town that is mostly LDS thus if they have been practicing their Churches guidance they have plenty of food storage for a year. If they are good caring citizens they are probably doing what they can to help others especially with food. I still think self protection is necessary just for those few who feel it is easier to take from others than prepare or take care of themselves. There is a little wild game in the area but not enough to provide for 900 people. Fair number of cows though so another possible resource. Many people in rural areas are fairly self sufficient thus I think the rural communities might fare well and may not even get as sick.
The financial situation is an issue, many folks work in our little town, minimum wage, businesses are closed, no tourists coming. locals not utilizing services. If this goes too long some folks may start losing homes if they can’t make payments. Interesting question, would credit companies have enough employees to send out bills? Would there be free rides by these companies until people can get back on there feet?
Out of beer but I guess I can get along without that. Might one some after all is over.
Trying to get my wife not to go to Church may be a chore. Hopefully, her Church leaders have seen the wisdom of not gathering and encouraging them to stay home. Maybe I should educate them too.
Sewage system is working fairly well for the City-have ponds, water is from a well and back up spring. Have river running through town. Don’t know if the city has a generator large enough to keep things going.
We might fare well. We will have to see.
If I stay at work. I am seeing overflow from the hospital by now. Hopefully, most of the students have gone home if it isn’t local. May be getting folks employed by the University thinking to come to us because they can’t get to the hospital or to their family Docs. Staff is tired though. Only two maybe three providers, 1-2 MD’s, 1-2 PA’s. Haven’t gotten confirmation from the Nursing Dept as to who would be available.
They have 100 RN students, 15 Faculty with 3 FNP’s. Trying to convince patients that staying home is there best bet. Hopefully, media coverage has continuted and convinced people to call before coming in. I suspect some hard decisions have been made as to what to do even with the more seriously ill-stay home and die, or come to us and die here-home would be better for me. Mental health issues are increasing. People decompensating. CISM teams out doing the best they can as well as our Counselling and Testing Dept. Parents of Students who couldn’t make it are tying up phone lines. International students who had the money to get home may have gone but most don’t have much in the way of finances thus they are still here(there are only 300 or so total). Those who did leave not likely to be back for a while if at all. Understand that there is quarantining going on at US airports. Your point is well taken though Kobie, maybe they are better off leaving because they are moving out of the first wave and it is safer there. Most of our international students are from Asia and jAfrica-then again, maybe they have nothing to go home to.
If we have been housing a number of “essential staff” from the University, I imagine food is decreasing or we are rationing or maybe they have gone home. Utilities, I don’t completely understand what the university is capable of maintaining. I hope the power isn’t down. We have walk-in reefers that we can put bodies in for preservation until proper disposal can be handled.
I still worry about my small town, only 125 miles from SLC and how many people have been exiting there and coming to us (Southeast Idaho) thinking it is safer and thus taxing our systems even more than anticipated. NO way to project this.
Kobie, thanks for all your great comments-it has made me think of many things and is all helping me formulate the response plan for the university, at least from the medical aspect.
To SDHD, thanks immensely, this has been far more useful than any table top I have been to. Talking in generalities is one thing, creating specifics is another and you have done this well. Mind stimulating for sure. Has recharged my batteries on getting some similance of a plan in writing. I have it in my head, just getting it on paper is the issue, but necessary. “A failure to plan is a plan to fail.” If it is written, anyone should be able to follow it. Hopefully one day we would be able to put it into action. The issue that has taken more precedence lately and has actually stimulated an exercise is campus violence and I believe we are having an exercise on this in OCT.
We all need to remember that the Panflu is only one type of “hazard” and we are to plan for “all hazards” based on the risks for your area.
I was just speaking with one of the Docs this a.m. about the volatileness of Yellowstone Cauldron and the effects it would have on all of Southeastern Idaho and Northern Utah and perhaps farther east given the prevailing winds.
Earthquakes another thought for us. Blizzards not much of a big deal for those of us around here-manage to function. Of course, the east gets 2 inches and they think they are in a blizzard, HA! (truly somewhat true).
Enough.
Thanks to all for all your hard work.
Education and Manpower-still believe these are the biggest issues with the first being the most important.
Mikey
July 29, 2008 at 12:04 pm |
you guys are writing novels… while i am here sitting in my house with neighbors first politely knocking on the door asking if i know why the Stop & Shop is closed.
2 days later knocking asking to borrow some milk and bread
2 days later banging demanding milk bread and soup
2 days later throwing rocks through my windows.
Ultimately it will come down to neighbor vs neighbor for valuable resources like clean water, food, wood (fuel)
July 29, 2008 at 1:51 pm |
hmm
My immediate family all isolated on the farm with their own food source and staying ok.
I am coordinating resources for backup as fuel for generators, keeping operators for the communication with alternate and back up equipment for of the clinicis/hospitals and transportation efforts. I am over seeing adequate staffing for security and medical personnel as well as their eating/sleeping regiem and area. Possibly Operations Chief.
July 29, 2008 at 2:36 pm |
Goju,
In the denser populated cities I am *hoping* we will have another Katrina where people did not riot nor turn on each other. The more prepared and informed the less likely this is to happen *IMHO*
In fair balence Goju could be right. Unlike a simple tornado, earthquake, Mt St. Helens, or Katrina the pandemic will last for weeks. It will be the unseen death. Goju has found many videos on YouTube. Here are but two.
Do not watch with the kids nor let the kids see them
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vSMqf8SfZS8 – Group of people
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xPYwmHiseXQ – Old Friends
Mel,
Hi. You are most welcome. The lessons learned from others. I wish you luck with the university and getting people motivated and prepped. Goju, Lugon, et al all point to being off the grid just in case things go bad.
9/11 pointed to how everyone had radios but they still could not talk to each other. Hence the reason I promote CBs or some standard radio.
The internet is already involved in pandemic (reporting, wiki, blogs, etc) The information needs to be right, needs to be tested and reviewed.
Regards,
Kobie
“As a rule, men worry more about what they can’t see than about what they can. ” Julius Ceasar
July 29, 2008 at 4:52 pm |
As a Nurse Practitioner with a clinic here in Firth, I am wondering how much my instincts will kick in to help people and if I will even live through this. I live in a rural area and could quarantine myself and my husband and probably be hunky dorry but like Mike, I am probably going out to help. A scary thought. I think sometimes there has to be a spiritual aspect to things and maybe some faith involved as far as I am personally concerned. I just know myself and I would be at the clinic using any supplies that I have and trying to help. Yikes. Katy
July 29, 2008 at 11:23 pm |
I leave you all with this thought – as i reached my 3 months of total well rounded prep and began to relax just a bit, I realized that is was only as prepared as my neighbors were… and their neighbors were and so on.
My goal had been to expand my personal family prep circle to encompass the country. But I have since realized that without a strong and consistent message from the highest level of Government, the issue will remain “fringe”.
This exercise was a great step in the right direction. We need more of them. We need everyone to get their houses in order so we may all live in the post pandemic time with our families intact and our great civilization still standing.
Cheers to the great state of Idaho for doing this.
July 30, 2008 at 11:26 am |
Goju,
Quite right with “I’m only as prepared as my neighbors are” – or words to that effect. Neighbors affect neighbors and so on.
We do need more of these – 1,900 more . According to the National League of Cities (Source: http://www.nlc.org/about_cities/cities_101/138.aspx) there are 19,429 municipalities. Most of them are small. So if 10 cities participate together that is 1,943 blogs.
I really with the AdCouncil had come through with PSA like we blogged about last year.
Katy,
Hi. I hear you. In fact we can not all stay home. If everyone stays home than everything shuts down. People have to work. Note, there are only 147 million working people in the US – I have the source somewhere. Hence because of “right sizing” it does not take many absentees to bring a system to a crawl. Because of “outsourcing” I believe the same is true.
The desire to help can be balanced with the need to protect others. My frustration will be at the inefficiencies. A disaster is not the time to stand around exchanging business cards and hand shakes asking “Hi, what do you do?”
The sarcasm in my post “that I should sit down and leave the pandemic to the professionals” is not imagined. Some cities have left H5N1 as a public health issue. The EOC is not responsible nor involved. Nor can the EOC officially comment on any H5N1 presentations. I’m on my own. Some of it I understand – non of it I agree with.
Back to the scenario update: location, location, location. Some parts of the city will fair worse than other parts *IMHO*. If there are sections of the city you would not walk or drive through then they really should be avoided during and post pandemic.
Regards,
Kobie
“Remember there’s no such thing as a small act of kindness. Every act creates a ripple with no logical end.” Scott Adams – creator of ‘Dilbert’ cartoon
August 1, 2008 at 8:36 am |
Thanks again to everyone who participated. The interaction between everyone, and those who didn’t comment but read everything, helped broaden everyone’s knowledge about pandemic flu. Thank you for taking part!
Darin – Excercise Coordinator